Real-time crisis markets — geopolitical, economic & natural disaster events
Following recent reports of the Strait of Hormuz being closed again and incidents involving India-flagged vessels, this market assesses the immediate future of commercial shipping access through this critical chokepoint. Reopening would signal a de-escalation.
The humanitarian crisis in Sudan has reached critical levels with millions displaced. International pressure is mounting for a UN Security Council resolution to enforce a ceasefire and establish humanitarian corridors.
Trade tensions between the US and China have escalated significantly. The US administration has signaled potential new tariff measures targeting Chinese imports across multiple sectors including technology, automotive, and consumer goods.
Growing concerns about a potential banking crisis in Europe have led to speculation about emergency ECB intervention. Several major European banks have reported significant losses, and interbank lending rates have spiked.
Seismologists have detected increased tectonic activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire. Multiple smaller tremors have been recorded in Japan, Indonesia, and Chile, raising concerns about a potential major seismic event.
Following reports from Fars News about Iran reimposing 'strict' restrictions and reversing a decision to open the Strait of Hormuz, citing a U.S. blockade, tensions are high. This market predicts if Iran will escalate by publicly declaring a full closure to all oil tankers within the next 7 days.
Amid escalating tensions and recent reports of the Strait being closed again, the critical chokepoint for global oil supplies faces renewed threats. This market gauges the immediate risk of disruption to commercial shipping.
Following recent missile launches, North Korea's continued military activities remain a significant regional concern. This market assesses the likelihood of further provocations in the coming month.
Short-term markets expiring soon from other categories
Mediators are pushing to extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with Pakistan indicating it expects to host a second round of talks. This market assesses the likelihood of a concrete announcement regarding the next negotiation steps within the next 3 days.
Which team will win the 2026 Pro Basketball Championship?
This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $150,000 USD at any point before December 31, 2026.
RaveDAO (RAVE) has seen a significant surge in trading volume and market cap rank. This market gauges whether its current momentum is sustainable in the highly volatile cryptocurrency landscape.
This market resolves YES if a Category 5 hurricane makes landfall on the continental United States in 2026.
NASA has announced coverage for Northrop Grumman's CRS-24 resupply mission to the International Space Station. This market focuses on the successful completion of a critical phase of the mission: the docking of the Cygnus spacecraft.
Crisis markets cover geopolitical, economic, and natural disaster events. These markets are typically short-term and require quick decisions. Trade with caution and ensure you understand the risks involved.